The ‘Hype Train’ leading up to the draft can lead to a lot of broken hearts. Draft “experts” tend to fall in love with certain prospects that ultimately don’t end up panning out. It may be factual, it may be cruel, but everybody plays the fool, sometimes.
Some teams, however, play the fool 8 years in a row, like the Jacksonville Jaguars who selected 8 straight busts in the top 10 from 2008 to 2015 and are just now finally recovering from those crippling picks.
Much has been made by many draft analysts on sports networks about certain players like Tyree Wilson, Keion White, Owen Pappoe, Cedric Tillman or Josh Downs just to name a few. Many of which whose tape doesn’t match the hype.
Keep in mind a lot of these analysts have fallen in love with these prospects a season or two ago and just can’t seem to let go, even though in reality, many of the players listed below have failed to progress or show clear indications they’ll make it as an impact NFL player. They’re so clouded by their emotion that when they put on these players’ current tape, their ability to reason is swept away.
So, before you do anything rash, like fall in love with an overhyped prospect, dig this list.
*Also, in case you’re wondering who those Jacksonville picks were, the Derrick Harvey (#8 overall) pick in 2008 was just the beginning, followed by OT Eugene Monroe (#8 overall) in 2009, DT Tyson Alualu (#10 overall) in 2010, QB Blaine Gabbert (#10 overall) in 2011, WR Justin Blackmon (#5 overall) in 2012, OT Luke Joeckel (#2 overall) in 2013, QB Blake Bortles (#4 overall) in 2014 and DE Dante Fowler (#3 overall) in 2015. Jalen Ramsey was the player to essentially stop the bleeding as the Jaguars 1st round pick in 2016 and due to the poor drafting prior to Ramsey, they were forced to trade him. Sorry to the Jags fans that had to relive that just now.
Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech
Wilson is a big, strong & long defender with very little to speak of in terms of technique or pass rush moves, which is alarming to me from a 5th year senior. Wilson might be the most overrated prospect in the last 10 years & is going to break the heart of the fanbase of whichever team selects him. I’m not saying he flat out won’t make it in the NFL; he could become a good player in a couple years, but certainly not worthy of a top 10 or even a 1st round selection. He relies solely on his size, strength & athleticism; I wouldn’t draft him before the 3rd round.
Keion White DL Georgia Tech
Keion White is caveman strong with a massive frame. While he shows flashes of a finesse game, there isn’t much technique to speak of. He’s raw and not overly athletic, although he does have some quickness. He’s one of the most overrated prospects in this draft class. I’ve seen him ranked all over the place and even in some LB rankings, but he certainly won’t be playing LB in the NFL. I see him strictly as a DT and maybe a DE in a 3-4.
DeWayne McBride RB UAB
McBride is a physical runner that hits the hole purposefully. While he exhibits good lateral movement, good shake to his game & has some decent burst; his vision is average at best. His speed is also questionable. Some draft guys have McBride included in their top 5 running backs. For me, due to his speed & vision deficiencies; I certainly do not.
Kayshon Boutte WR LSU
Boutte displays very good body control & footwork when getting off the line of scrimmage and making adjustments on the football. He’s a decent athlete with adequate speed however, while Boutte shows flashes of being a dynamic player; he is just too inconsistent for my liking to project him as anything higher than a 4th or 5th receiver in the pros.
Antoine Green WR North Carolina
Green is a smart player with some good technique getting off the line of scrimmage. He’s a decent route runner with reliable hands. He has good speed, but is a limited athlete by pro standards. He lacks the balance, footwork and body control to be an impact player in the NFL.
Trey Palmer WR Nebraska
Palmer is really fast. Unfortunately, aside from his speed, everything else about his game is average. His hands, route running, vision as a ball carrier, ball security, & footwork all need to improve dramatically for him to have a shot at a career in the NFL.
Darius Rush CB South Carolina
Rush is a big corner that uses his size well close to the line of scrimmage and is a good tackler. He’s a bit of an anomaly as he doesn’t play very fast or overly quick, but ran a 4.36 at the combine. He does have good hips, but his overall fundamentals and footwork leave a lot to be desired. Not very physical in coverage nor is he a very instinctive player. Workout warrior.
Tanner McKee QB Stanford
McKee is a guy that a lot of draft “experts” have relatively high in their rankings; I do not. His size is desirable however, he has poor mechanics, below average footwork & average arm strength. He isn’t athletic at all and I don’t see him being anything close to a difference maker in the NFL.
D.J. Turner CB Michigan
Turner is a supremely athletically gifted cornerback. He has super quick feet, elite speed and can turn & run with anyone. Turner doesn’t play with a lot of physicality and does not have the instincts to make him a real difference maker at the cornerback position in the NFL. He’s a very reactive rather than proactive corner, which will limit his versatility in the NFL.
Stetson Bennett QB Georgia
There’s no denying Bennett was a winner in college. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t possess the skill-set or physical abilities to translate to the NFL. He is a gamer, has some mobility, but his arm strength is below average, mechanics are poor, accuracy is OK and he’s really small. I have a really hard time projecting him as anything more than an undrafted free agent camp invitee.
Josh Downs WR North Carolina
While Downs has made appearances on more than a handful of draft “expert’s” top 10 wide receiver rankings; he is not much more than a gadget type receiver. There are plenty of receivers that are undersized but play bigger; Downs isn’t one of them. His size or lack thereof will prevent him being an impact player at the next level and I don’t see his small frame withstanding the NFL physicality.
Juice Scruggs C Penn State
Juice Scruggs has one the coolest names in the draft. That’s probably the best thing I can say about his game. Nothing really stands out about his game – He won’t amount to much and probably shouldn’t and won’t be drafted. I’ve seen him as high as 3rd on center rankings and it just baffles me.
Anthony Bradford OL LSU
Bradford was one of the strongest & most powerful players I scouted this year, however he was also seemingly one of the most disinterested & lazy players as well. Far too often I witnessed him not following through on blocks, quit on blocks before the whistle or before the play developed. I’m not sure if he was just gassed, out of shape or just lacks the required passion to play this game at a high level consistently. He’s on my do-not-draft list.
Mazi Smith DT Michigan
Mazi Smith is very strong at the point of attack, but he isn’t an explosive penetrator and his mediocre first step will prevent him from becoming a difference maker in the NFL. He has some glimpses of good technique with his swim moves and hand fighting, but his overall technique & leverage are way too inconsistent. If a team takes him in the 1st or 2nd round like he’s projected by some folks; they’ll be wildly disappointed.
Owen Pappoe LB Auburn
Pappoe had one of the best combine performances this year and is what we like to call a “workout warrior”. Sub 4.4 speed and nearly 30 reps at 225 while weighing 225 is quite the feat; it’s too bad his tape isn’t nearly as impressive. He’s got some pop to his game and the sideline to sideline speed is evident however, he’s a poor tackler by linebacker standards, his instincts are below average and play recognition is average. Don’t get your hopes up with this one.
Jammie Robinson DB Florida State
Robinson is a highly competitive compact player with some pop. He doesn’t project as a safety in the NFL and will likely settle in as a nickel corner. He’s very quick and physical in short intermediate areas, but does have some physical shortcomings like his short arms and compact frame that will prevent him from becoming an impact player in the NFL.
Tyrique Stevenson DB Miami
Stevenson is a physical tackling cornerback with limited fundamental athleticism. He has good burst and quickness, but his subpar footwork, hips & timing may prevent him from becoming a true cornerback at the next level. He does have elite recovery/closing speed so, I could see him finding a home as a cover-2 corner or perhaps making a move to safety.
Rejzohn Wright CB Oregon State
Wright has prototypical size for a NFL cornerback with good agility, good hips & excellent body control. He has too much of a finesse style/attitude to his game that is underwhelming for a player his size. There isn’t much physicality to his game and he’s a player I think peaked in college.
Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee
Tillman has prototypical NFL size and frame, but I’m not sure that will be enough to make him a successful receiver in the big leagues. While he has some good ball skills, he’s not particularly fast and he isn’t as quick or agile as his counterparts. His best quality might be as a red zone target but aside from that, he doesn’t project to be a special player in the NFL.
Jordan McFadden OL Clemson
McFadden played predominantly tackle at Clemson, but projects better at guard in the NFL due to his size, although he does have good length. He’s a good athlete with average strength and I’m not sure that he’s an aggressive or powerful enough blocker to be very effective in the pros.
Eli Ricks CB Alabama
Ricks is an exceptionally gifted athlete with terrific size. He’s a physically imposing cornerback and is insanely agile. The problem is, he’s just not a very good player. He’s not instinctive, not a very smart player and doesn’t prioritize tackling. I don’t know if he has it in him to bring it all together – spectacular athlete, though.
Luke Musgrave TE Oregon St
Musgrave is a good route runner with a big body and frame. He has good hands, good speed & quickness, but lacks the balance and agility to be dynamic after the catch. He’s an adequate blocker, but he’s real top-heavy and will need to get stronger down low in order to make a long term impact in the NFL.
Jake Andrews C Troy
Andrews shows good strength at the point of attack and locks in on defenders quite well in intermediate areas, but he will struggle with the combination of power and quickness of NFL pass rushers. He just isn’t athletic enough and doesn’t exhibit the lateral movement necessary to be effective in the NFL.
Nolan Smith EDGE Georgia
Nolan Smith is an exceptionally physically gifted athlete that used his raw strength & athleticism to feast on lesser opponents at Georgia. It’s easy to see why people are high on him, especially after running a blazing 4.39 at the combine, however he’ll need to become more calculated at the next level in order to be an impact player. He’s a crafty pass rusher and could ultimately become a terrific player in time, but he is very raw overall. I am intrigued by Smith, but I wouldn’t take him over any of the guys I have ranked ahead of him. Someone will grossly overdraft Nolan Smith.
Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
A big bodied tight end. An average blocker and decently athletic. He has reliable hands and is a good route runner. Not overly physical and is limited after the catch.
Israel Abanikanda RB PITT
Abanikanda is a determined runner with good vision & decent speed. He has some burst, but isn’t explosive by any means. Think Miles Sanders or Devin Singletary as a ceiling. I guess that’s not so bad.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB UCLA
“DTR” plays a backyard brand of football that was effective in college, but won’t translate to the NFL at the QB position. He is a superb athlete that might be best suited as a wild-cat type player. He can be an effective passer at times, however his arm just isn’t consistent or strong enough to be a starter in the NFL. He will be a career backup or gadget type player.
Evan Hull RB Northwestern
Hull has quick feet and has good speed & burst. He’s a physical, hard nosed runner and has some receiving ability. Vision is average and is a relatively limited athlete overall.
Tiyon Evans RB Louisville
Evans is a hard nosed, physical runner whose athleticism is only average. He’s a north and south guy that could show flashes of more but, not really.
Emil Ekiyor Jr. OL Alabama
Ekiyor is an ultra athletic lineman, but has average strength & technique. He has good smarts and instincts for the position, but he’s not very reactive – it’s like his mind and body just cannot get on the same page consistently enough. I don’t know if he can fix that, but if he doesn’t – there won’t be a spot for him in the pros.
